2019 Oscars Nominations: Who Should Win, Who Will Win, and Who Got Snubbed

It’s that time of year again for us to look back at the best work done in the artform of cinema in the preceding 12 months. By “us,” I really mean the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences––they are the ones who decide who wins. I have become quite disillusioned with the Oscars within the past couple of years.

Not only is the concept of a “best” picture, actor, actress, director, etc. applying a veneer of objectivity to a subjective matter––art (I believe there are numerous objectively good or bad qualities in filmmaking, but the enjoyment, or lack thereof, someone gets out of a movie is purely based on subjective personal taste)––the politics behind who gets nominated and who does not, as well as who ultimately wins does not sit well with me.

Nevertheless, an Oscar nomination or win can bring a more under-the-radar movie into the much-deserved spotlight.

The 2019 Oscars were initially going to include an award for most entertaining/popular movie. This was widely seen as a thinly veiled attempt to give “Black Panther” an Oscar acknowledging its enormous cultural impact, but without feeling the need to include it in the infinitely more prestigious “Best Picture” category. After a large backlash led by Marvel and avid supporters of the film, the Academy canceled the new award.

I will be covering most, but not all, of the categories. I will be skipping over: Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short, Visual Effects, Makeup and Hair, Costume Design, Production Design, Best Live Action Short, Best Animated Short, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

Now let’s get into the actual nominations:

 Best Picture

Nominees:

• “Black Panther”
• “Vice”
• “Roma”
• “The Favourite”
• “BlackkKlansman”
• “A Star is Born”
• “Green Book”
• “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Who Should Win: “Roma”

Who Will Win: “Roma”

I can easily see the award going to “The Favourite,” “Green Book” or “A Star is Born.” I place “Roma” and “The Favourite” as my top picks, though, because they are tied for the most nominations, both with 10. The movie(s) with the most nominations usually have the best chances of winning.

Who Was Snubbed:

• “First Reformed”
• “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• “Hereditary”
• “Searching”
• “First Man”

 Best Actor:

• Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• Christian Bale in “Vice”
• Willem Dafoe in “At Eternity’s Gate”
• Bradley Cooper in “A Star is Born”
• Viggo Mortensen in “Green Book”

Who Should Win: Christian Bale

Who Will Win: Christian Bale

Though I have not had the chance to see “Vice” yet, it is clear from the trailer alone that Bale completely transformed himself to play the role of Dick Cheney. He got his speech pattern down to a “T” and, though he is assisted heavily by excellent makeup, he has his minute facial tics down as well. He also put on a significant amount of weight to play the part. It’s an easy bet.

Who Got Snubbed: Ethan Hawke in “First Reformed”

If Hawke had been nominated, he would be the most deserving of the award. His performance was truly outstanding. Other notable snubs are Clint Eastwood in “The Mule” and Robert Redford in “The Old Man with the Gun.” Both of these men are Hollywood legends and the Academy usually likes to honor swan song performances of industry darlings whenever they get the chance.

Best Actress

• Lady Gaga in “A Star is Born”
• Yalitza Aparicio in “Roma”
• Olivia Colman in “The Favourite”
• Glenn Close in “The Wife”
• Melissa McCarthy in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Who Should Win: Olivia Colman

Who Will Win: Glenn Close

This is Close’s seventh nomination. She has yet to win in her four-decade-long career and the Academy tends to give the award to industry veterans who have yet to win (see Leonardo DiCaprio in 2016 or Al Pacino in 1993 for examples).

Who Got Snubbed: Toni Collette in “Hereditary”

Collette gave what was probably the best performance in a horror movie since Jack Nicholson in “The Shining” and it would have been nice if her work had been recognized.

Best Supporting Actor

• Sam Elliot in “A Star is Born”
• Sam Rockwell in “Vice”
• Mahershala Ali in “Green Book”
• Adam Driver in “BlackkKlansman”
• Richard E. Grant in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Who Should Win: Sam Elliott

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Ali is very hot right now and he is a safe bet for the win in this category. He won Best Supporting Actor for “Moonlight” in 2017 and is likely to win again here. I wouldn’t be disappointed if Ali wins, he is an immensely talented and charismatic actor who I’ve been a fan of ever since his supporting role as Remy Danton in the Netflix original series “House of Cards,” I just think Sam Elliott gave the better performance here.

Who Got Snubbed: Daniel Kaluuya in “Widows”

Best Supporting Actress

• Regina King in “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• Emma Stone in “The Favourite”
• Rachel Weiss in “The Favourite”
• Marina de Tavira in “Roma”
• Amy Adams in “Vice”

Who Should Win: Regina King

Who Will Win: Regina King

King gave the most memorable performance in a film filled with memorable performances. The scene where she earns this award is the film’s most emotional moment, and that’s saying something.

Who Was Snubbed: Claire Foy in “First Man”

Best Director

• Alfonso Cuaron for “Roma”
• Spike Lee for “BlackkKlansman”
• Yorgos Lanthimos for “The Favourite”
• Paweł Pawlikowski for “Cold War”
• Adam McKay for “Vice”

Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Who Got Snubbed:

• Ari Aster for “Hereditary”
• Aneesh Chaganty for “Searching”
• Barry Jenkins for “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• Steve McQueen for “Widows”
• Damien Chazelle for “First Man”

 Best Animated Feature

• “Isle of Dogs”
• “Incredibles 2”
• “Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse”
• “Wreck-It Ralph 2: Ralph Breaks the Internet”
• “Mirai”

Who Should Win: “Isle of Dogs”

Who Will Win: “Incredibles 2”

Pixar has only lost this award two times out of a total of 11 nominations. Usually, they deserve it, but I feel that Wes Anderson crafted an intricate and witty film with “Isle of Dogs” and is more deserving of the Oscar than “Incredibles 2”.

Best Documentary Feature

• “Free Solo”
• “Minding the Gap”
• “Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
• “Of Fathers and Sons”
• “RBG”

What Should Win: “Free Solo”

What Will Win: “Free Solo”

None of the three feature-length documentaries I saw in theaters this year were nominated. However, I have been hearing outstanding things about “Free Solo” and I would be shocked if it lost here.

Who Got Snubbed: “Won’t You Be My Neighbor” and “They Shall Not Grow Old”

Both of these films were among the finest documentaries I have ever seen. I have a hard time believing that any of the five films nominated in this category reach the heights these films do.

Best Original Score

• Terence Blanchard for “BlackkKlansmen”
• Nicholas Littrell for “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• Ludwig Goransson for “Black Panther”
• Alexandre Desplat for “Isle of Dogs”
• Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman for “Mary Poppins Returns”

Who Should Win: Alexandre Desplat or Nicholas Littrell

Who Will Win: Alexandre Desplat or Nicholas Littrell

Both of these are tied for my favorite score of the year. I would be glad to see either win and I’m quite certain the race will be between the two of them.

Best Original Song

• Kendrick Lamar and SZA for “All the Stars” from “Black Panther”
• Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice for “Shallow” from “A Star is Born”
• Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman for “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
• Diane Warren and Jennifer Hudson for “I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
• David Rawlings and Gillian Welch for “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”

What Should Win: “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”

What Will Win: “Shallow”

I would love to see Rawlings and Welch take the award, but I’m almost completely certain they won’t. “Shallow” is a good song and is well deserving of the Oscar. I would love to see Kendrick Lamar win, too because I am a huge fan of his.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee for “BlackkKlansman”
• Joel & Ethan Coen for “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
• Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters for “A Star is Born”
• Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
• Barry Jenkins for “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Who Should Win: Joel & Ethan Coen

Who Will Win: David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee

Who Got Snubbed: Alex Garland for “Annihilation”

Best Original Screenplay

• Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara for “The Favourite”
• Paul Schrader for “First Reformed”
• Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly for “Green Book”
• Alfonso Cuaron for “Roma”
• Adam McKay for “Vice”

Who Should Win: Paul Schrader

Who Will Win: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly

 Best Foreign Film

• “Capernaum” (Lebanon)
• “Cold War” (Poland)
• “Never Look Away” (Germany)
• “Roma” (Mexico)
• “Shoplifters” (Japan)

What Should Win: “Roma”

What Will Win: “Roma”

“Roma” is all but guaranteed to win here. Anytime a foreign film gets nominated in the penultimate Best Picture category, it always wins in the foreign language category. As “Roma” is very likely to win “Best Picture,” it is possible that the Academy will give this award to another film, just to recognize the efforts of the second “best” film. If that’s the case, “Cold War” would get the Oscar here because it was also nominated for best director. None of the other films listed here were nominated in any other category.

What Got Snubbed:

• “Burning”
• “Happy as Lazzaro”