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Polling Possibilities

Polling information about leading Republican nominee former President Donald Trump and Democrat incumbent President Joe Biden revealed interesting results in many battleground states in the nation.

This past week, Emerson College Polling and Bloomberg News-Morning Consult released polling information after analyzing multiple battleground states.

Results found former President Trump maintaining a majority hold in the Republican Party primary and even making headway in the young voter population.

Both sets of polling information have caused interest across the country due to the surprising results. It seems in some key toss-up states, President Biden is losing traction and support among the general populace of voters. 

In the Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll, the closest states (between Trump and Biden) from the 2020 Presidential Election were analyzed: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“The results show Trump leading among registered voters in Arizona (47 percent to 43 percent), Georgia (48 percent to 43 percent), North Carolina (47 percent to 43 percent), Pennsylvania (46 percent to 45 percent), and Wisconsin (46 percent to 44 percent). Biden leads in Nevada (46 percent to 43 percent), and the two candidates are tied in Michigan (at 44 percent). 

“Taking the margins of error into account, Trump has small leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and the candidates are statistically tied in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin,” according to The Intelligencer, New York Magazine.

Contrarily, Emerson College Polling has released information more focused on states likely to have down-ballot elections. While Emerson College Polling still focused on key battleground states, it yielded information favoring President Trump more.

“Trump is predictably far ahead of Biden in red states like Montana (by 21 points), Tennessee (by 33 points), and Wyoming (53 points). 

“But Emerson also has polls of Wisconsin (Trump 42 percent, Biden 40 percent), Michigan (Biden 44 percent, Trump 43 percent), and a Pennsylvania shocker (Trump 45 percent, Biden 36 percent),” according to The Intelligencer, New York Magazine.

Among young voters, Emerson College Polling reported a higher proportion for Trump than Biden in some swing states as well.

“‘While the poll reflects voters under 30 breaking for Biden by significant margins in 2020, 45% of voters under 30 support Trump in 2024 in this survey while 43% support Biden,’ Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said,” according to Emerson College Polling.

Emerson College Polling also asked voters whether President Biden’s policies and actions may have affected their hesitancy to vote for the Delaware-native Democrat incumbent:

“Voters were asked if they think the policies of President Biden have made the United States a safer place than the policies of former President Trump…Forty-three percent think Biden’s policies make the U.S. less safe, 41% think they make the U.S. more safe, and 16% think it is about the same.”

However, in the same Emerson College poll, when it came to the U.S. economy, voters were much more stark in their thoughts about which political candidate had worsened the state of the economy.

“Voters were asked who they think is responsible for the current condition of the U.S. economy: President Biden or former President Trump. Fifty-eight percent see Biden as responsible, and 28% see Trump as responsible. Fourteen percent are unsure.”

It seems the passionate strategies of the Biden campaign to force the idea of Bidenomics being a utopian plan for America is causing Biden’s polling numbers to flounder. These results have been used to guess why Biden is losing more ground in swing states to Trump, which could be disastrous for the economically weak Biden come 2024.

One thing is for certain: due to Biden’s economic policy disasters and executive blunders, the 2024 Presidential Election landscape is becoming more contested and could very well be one of the closest elections in American history.

See Emerson College Polling information here.

See Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polling information here.

See The Intelligencer/New York Magazine reports here.

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